The stock market rebounded sharply on Friday, driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September. This positive sentiment was fueled by recent consumer sentiment and inflation data, which suggested a more dovish stance from the Fed. Additionally, the earnings season for big banks kicked off with mixed results.
Key Takeaways
- Markets surged on hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in June, slightly above expectations.
- Core PPI remained unchanged month-over-month.
- The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed a yearly low, but inflation expectations decreased.
- Major indices closed higher: Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), S&P 500 (+0.6%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6%).
- Big banks reported mixed earnings results.
Economic Data Fuels Optimism
The day began with mixed economic news that bolstered hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, rose by 0.2% in June, slightly above economists’ forecast of 0.1%. Core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade costs, remained unchanged month-over-month.
Separately, the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers hit a yearly low, but both short- and long-term inflation expectations ticked lower. This combination of data points has led to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Market Performance
At the closing bell, major indices showed significant gains:
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.6% to 18,398
- S&P 500: +0.6% to 5,615
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.6% to 40,000
Interest rate traders are now assigning an 88% probability to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enacting its first quarter-point cut at its September meeting, up from 85% a day ago and 60% a month ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Mixed Earnings for Big Banks
The nation’s largest banks kicked off the second-quarter earnings season with varied results.
- JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Despite releasing second-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, the stock fell by 1.2%. Revenue increased by 20.3% year-over-year to $51 billion, and net income jumped by 25% to $18.1 billion.
- Citigroup (C): The stock declined by 1.8% despite beating top- and bottom-line expectations. Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year to $20.1 billion, driven by growth across all businesses. Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 14.3% to $1.52.
- Wells Fargo (WFC): The biggest loser in the S&P 500, falling by 6%. Despite beating analysts’ expectations, net interest income failed to meet expectations. Revenue increased by 0.8% year-over-year to $20.7 billion, but net interest income declined by 9.4% to $11.9 billion. EPS increased by 6.4% to $1.33.
Conclusion
The stock market’s strong performance on Friday was driven by optimism for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. While economic data and mixed earnings reports from major banks provided a complex backdrop, the overall sentiment remains positive as traders look forward to potential monetary easing.
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